Around this time of year many people like to publish their predictions for the next year – and according to an article, the “experts and analysts” do not see a lot of innovation coming out of the United States soon. The article mentions and quotes a number of sources that suggest the rate of innovation is going to be sluggish the next few years. One source suggested that “bigger innovation labs and companies are holding back on numerous innovations until they can properly monetize them.”
I wonder if these observations and expectations are realistic. I see innovation every time I see some capability available for less cost, training, or skill than before. I am constantly amazed at the speed at which new technology reaches the hands of people in the lowest quartile of income. More significantly, I am amazed at how these new technologies appear in everyday activities without a fanfare. For example, my daughter who is learning to drive has pointed out features that she really likes about the car she is driving – features I never gave any thought about either because I did not notice them or because noticing them would be analogous to noticing and commenting on the air we breathe.
My daughter received a Nintendo 3DS as a present this Christmas. The 3D part of this product goes far beyond the display as it enables her to move the device around and interact with the software in new and meaningful ways. These “invisible” types of innovations do not seem to make big headlines, but I suspect they are still sources of technology disruptions.
As for a company holding off on an innovation, is such a thing possible in a highly competitive world? Can any company afford to hold off on an innovative idea and risk another company beating them to the punch in the market?
Is the rate of innovation stagnating? Is the marketing hype around innovation just not getting the return on investment and so companies are backing off on how they hype it? Are you aware of anyone holding back on innovative ideas waiting for a better consumer market to release them?